Jacksonville built for a decade of growth and delivered most of it at once. Vacancy has climbed to 9.4% — up nearly 280 bps on the year and now well above the 7.5% national mark — after roughly 6.9M SF came online in twelve months and 26.6M SF over five years. The weight sits in logistics, 11.3% vacant with more than half of recent completions still unleased, and rent growth has stalled to 0.9%, dead last among Florida’s six primary markets. Yet demand is real: the port drove +1.6M SF of net absorption over the year, a swing from roughly (700K) a year ago. Capital agrees — $1.4 billion traded at a record $119/SF and a 7.1% cap. This is a supply story, not a demand one.
What Happened in Q3
Four threads run through Jacksonville this quarter — a record wave of new logistics space has pushed vacancy to a decade high, the port kept large-format demand alive even as the trailing year still trailed supply, rent growth flattened to the bottom of the state, and the pipeline has finally thinned toward a more sustainable pace:
- New space outruns demand. Vacancy reached 9.4%, up nearly 280 bps on the year, as 6.9M SF delivered into a market that absorbed less. Logistics carries it — 11.3% vacant, availability 13.7% — with more than half of recent completions still dark.
- The port keeps demand alive. Net absorption swung to +1.6M SF over twelve months from roughly −700K a year ago, led by large-format users tied to the Port of Jacksonville. ALDI’s 1.2M-SF Riverside lease headlined the signings, but new supply still outpaced it.
- Last in the state. Asking rent growth slowed to 0.9% — below the 1.3% national mark and last among Florida’s six primary markets. At $9.94 PSF it sits far under the $12.20 U.S. average. Flex (+2.1%) still moves; specialized manufacturing has turned negative.
- The pipeline resets. Deliveries peaked in late 2025; the pipeline has contracted to about 1.5M SF — roughly 0.8% of inventory and a fraction of the 26.6M SF built over five years. Supply is normalizing, but the overhang from the last wave still has to lease.
By Submarket
Jacksonville’s largest industrial submarkets, ranked by inventory. The West Side and Ocean Way — the port-fed logistics core — together drove the year’s absorption and carry most of the new-supply vacancy, while Butler Corridor and the smaller-bay pockets stay tight and hold the higher rents.
| Submarket | Vacancy | Asking Rent / SF | 12-Mo Net Absorption |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Side | 11.6% | $8.50 | 767K SF |
| Ocean Way | 12.2% | $9.41 | 569K SF |
| Riverside | 6.7% | $9.11 | (458K SF) |
| Butler Corridor | 5.0% | $12.98 | 240K SF |
| Downtown | 3.0% | $8.18 | (125K SF) |
| North Side | 7.7% | $8.64 | (113K SF) |
| St Johns | 15.2% | $11.76 | 696K SF |
| Jacksonville overall | 9.4% | $9.94 | 1.6M SF |
Asking rent in $/SF NNN; net absorption trailing 12 months, negatives in parentheses. Ranked by inventory; top seven of 16 submarkets shown, with the market total. Vacancy is where you sit — Butler Corridor and Downtown stay tight; the port-fed logistics core carries the new-supply slack.
Capital Markets
Jacksonville industrial traded roughly $1.4 billion over the trailing twelve months — a record for the market and multiples of its ~$393M ten-year average — as velocity rose about 15% and roughly 270 assets changed hands. Pricing tells the discipline: a record $119 PSF and a 7.1% average cap rate, inside national levels by 10–20 bps but still well under coastal Florida. Buyers are paying up for stabilized, port-adjacent product and passing on the speculative big-box that is still leasing up.
Two port submarkets took most of the volume: Ocean Way and the West Side together account for roughly two-thirds, with comps averaging $125/SF at a 7.1% cap and a $2.1M median. Comparable-sale pricing centers on a $127 median across 275 deals — median and average sit within $2 of each other, a tight middle for a market that trades everything from legacy infill to new institutional cold storage. Institutional and private-equity capital leads volume, with the bid prioritizing stabilized, leased product. The constraint here isn’t capital — it’s conviction on lease-up. With vacancy near a decade high and rent growth flat, buyers are underwriting to in-place income and port-driven demand, not to a rent rebound. Stabilized, port-adjacent assets clear at record pricing; unleased big-box is where the bid-ask still has to close.
From the Principals
What we’re seeing on the ground — beyond the tape.
“Jacksonville’s vacancy is a crane problem, not a customer problem. The port keeps handing this market big tenants — developers just built ahead of them for a year, and now it’s leasing back down.”
The 9.4% headline is almost entirely a supply number. Nearly 6.9 million SF delivered in twelve months, logistics now sits 11.3% vacant, and more than half the newest space is still dark. But the demand engine is running: the Port of Jacksonville drove a 2.3-million-SF swing in absorption, and ALDI’s 1.2-million-SF Riverside deal and Keurig Dr Pepper’s 600,000-SF renewal prove national users still choose this market for deepwater port access at the cheapest big-market basis in Florida. The tell is vintage: pre-1975 product is under 7% vacant while the last five years’ deliveries approach 30%. This market got ahead of its own cranes; it didn’t lose its tenants.
— Matthew L. Phillips, SIOR · Principal · (561) 621-5466 · Matt@IronmarkCRE.com
“A record year of buying, and almost none of it touched the empty new space — capital paid up for stabilized, port-adjacent income and left the lease-up risk on the table.”
Roughly $1.4 billion traded over the trailing year — a record for this market and several times its ten-year average near $393 million — with velocity up ~15% across 270 assets. The pricing shows the discipline: a record $119 per foot at a 7.1% average cap, only 10-20 bps inside national and well below coastal Florida. Where the money went is the point — Ocean Way and the West Side took nearly two-thirds of volume, both tethered to the port, and December’s cold-storage trade near $318 per foot shows what stabilized, specialized product commands. The bid is for durable, leased income with a logistics reason to exist. Speculative big box still has to prove its lease-up — which is exactly why a record price and 9.4% vacancy hold true at once.
— Troy Schaafsma, SIOR · Principal · (561) 621-5489 · Troy@IronmarkCRE.com
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Ironmark Florida Industrial Brief — Jacksonville Edition. This brief is Ironmark Capital Advisory’s own analysis and commentary, current as of 3Q 2026; it is informational and not tax, legal, or investment advice. © 2026 Ironmark Capital Advisory.