Orlando’s industrial market is recalibrating after a three-year expansion that added 17.8 million SF to inventory. The headline — an 8.9% vacancy rate, a 12-year high — masks a sharp split: buildings over 500,000 SF are pushing toward 20% availability, while small-bay product under 20,000 SF sits below 4%. Rent growth has cooled to 4.1%, but leasing volume is up nearly 10% year-over-year, sales volume reached $1.8 billion over the trailing twelve months, and the construction pipeline is narrowing. The setup heading into 2027 is materially different from today’s tape.
What Happened in Q2
Four threads define Orlando’s industrial story this quarter:
- Leasing velocity is firming. Total leasing volume rose nearly 10% year-over-year as landlords subdivided larger blocks to fit tenant demand. The 10K–50K SF cohort drove roughly a quarter of all activity.
- Vacancy is bifurcating by size. Vacancy in buildings over 500,000 SF is approaching 20%, while space under 20,000 SF sits below 4%. Concessions are emerging for big-box — not for small-bay.
- One lease anchored the year. Ryder Logistics’ 1.2M-SF occupancy at Apopka 429 accounted for more than half of Orlando’s 2025 net absorption — the first major large-format lease in NW Orange County since Amazon’s 1.1M-SF deal in 2020.
- The pipeline is narrowing by half. 3.94M SF remains under construction across 42 projects — a 1.8% expansion to inventory, well below the 17.8M SF delivered over the prior three years. Developers are reconfiguring toward smaller, more divisible product.
By Submarket
Orlando’s seven industrial submarkets tell the bifurcation story clearly. SE Orange County remains the engine — 31.5% of metro inventory and over two-thirds of all current development — while NW Orange County drove the year’s headline absorption on the back of the Ryder lease.
| Submarket | Vacancy | Asking Rent / SF | 12-Mo Net Absorption |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE Orange County | 5.1% | $19.74 | 44K SF |
| Seminole County | 5.4% | $15.41 | 151K SF |
| Osceola County | 6.5% | $15.52 | 182K SF |
| SE Orange County | 8.8% | $14.82 | 554K SF |
| SW Orange County | 9.3% | $15.22 | (1.19M SF) |
| NW Orange County | 10.6% | $14.08 | 2.09M SF |
| Lake County | 12.3% | $12.05 | 275K SF |
| Metro overall | 8.9% | $14.65 | 2.1M SF |
Asking rent in $/SF NNN; rent growth trailing 12 months. Where you sit drives the rate — NE Orange leads at $19.74; Lake trails at $12.05.
Capital Markets
Capital is back — but disciplined. Orlando industrial sales volume reached $1.8 billion over the trailing twelve months, well above the 10-year annual average near $1.0 billion — up roughly 40% year-over-year, with institutional and private capital accounting for nearly 70% of activity.
Pricing has held firm even as cap rates have widened — logistics now trades 5.25%–6.00% versus the sub-4.50% prints of the prior cycle — signaling that rent growth and basis improvement have absorbed much of the rate move. Bid-ask spreads remain the friction point: broker-opinion-of-value requests have climbed as owners test where the market clears. Underwriting discipline is real; capital appetite is not the constraint.
From the Principals
What we’re seeing on the ground — beyond the tape.
“The Orlando story isn’t oversupply — it’s a mismatch. Big-box and small-bay are now two different markets inside one MSA.”
Orlando’s 8.9% headline vacancy understates what’s happening on the ground. Buildings over 500,000 SF are pushing toward 20% availability, while space under 20,000 SF sits below 4% — two markets moving in opposite directions. The basis play is in functional small-bay product; the value-add play is in big-box assets that can be subdivided. We’ve seen owners push asking rents $0.50 per foot with each successive lease where supply is genuinely tight.
— Matthew L. Phillips, SIOR · Principal · (561) 621-5466 · Matt@IronmarkCRE.com
“Capital is back at the table. The question isn’t whether to transact — it’s how the bid-ask gap closes.”
Sales volume of $1.8B over the trailing twelve months tells you institutional capital has decided Orlando is investable again. Roughly 70% came from institutional and private buyers; private equity another 20%. Cap rates have expanded more than 50 basis points off the 2022 peak, yet pricing per foot has moved higher — $137 to $173 — meaning rent growth and improved basis have absorbed part of the rate move. Our read: capital wants product. The discipline is on underwriting, not on appetite.
— Troy Schaafsma, SIOR · Principal · (561) 621-5489 · Troy@IronmarkCRE.com
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Ironmark Florida Industrial Brief — Orlando Edition, Vol. I, No. I (Inaugural Issue). This brief is Ironmark Capital Advisory’s own analysis and commentary, current as of 2Q 2026; it is informational and not tax, legal, or investment advice. © 2026 Ironmark Capital Advisory.